← Oinkers Island Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Oinkers Island Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.9%
avg ELO -15.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1253
· median 1253
· range 1253–1253
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1191
Q3 1343
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
